From time to time, Mr PMP throws me suggestions for blog topics. After 17 years of writing the monthly PMP blog, I can get a bit stumped trying to come up with anything new and quite often, it's a case of writing about how things have changed or evolved over the years. Fortunately, he is a regular reader of The Economist so occasionally I feel that I've got something substantial to talk about rather than the ramblings of a possibly jaded recruiter.
This month, the Economist published an article citing that if you want higher pay, you're best to stay with your current employer. The statistics that they cite is largely based on USA figures but anecdotally I can concur with very similar trends in the UK. For the last few years, particularly in Millennials and GenZ, there has been a real trend that it pays to be 'footloose'. Apparently there are 'Career Gurus' on TikTok who brag and debate on how little time in a role a job hopper can get away with before future employers might start to fret about disloyalty (A year or so is their general consensus).
Now, the US stats are showing that wage growth is higher for those who have stayed with their employer rather than jumped ship. The advice is that it's better to hunker down and impress the boss rather than replying to all those 'Headhunters' on LinkedIn.
As with all aspects of recruitment in the last 18 months, and indeed since the buoyancy of the pandemic, there are many factors affecting our sector. During the pandemic, many creative agencies and businesses over-hired and have spent the subsequent years paring back. In the North West and Yorkshire particularly, I've seen more redundancies in the last 12 months than the previous 5 years. Graduate recruitment is at an all time low as is the hiring of those aged over 55.
Many of my agency clients have told me that they are being asked by their clients for far more, for far less. Retained business is very hard to come by and budgets are not predictable. This means that agencies do not have confidence to hire - i.e. to increase their overheads, if the client work is not going to be sustainable and continued. Additionally, clients will only hire if they are absolutely sure of a potential employee's suitability for a role and they are conscious of any 'red flags'. The primary red flag that I see is job hopping. Agencies now are very suspicious of taking anyone on who may only intend to stay with them for a year. (The Economist article doesn't venture into this territory - this is my extended take on things!).
Another observation that I have made in recent months is a few cases of permanent job offers being made, only for a new employee to be 'let go' within 3-6 months. This is usually extremely rare. No employer goes into the hiring process with an intention of a hire not working out. They particularly don't pay a recruiter unless they are serious about needing the skills of that new employee. There is a lot of global uncertainty - economic, political and social and this is clearly impacting the corporate world.
I have definitely seen many candidates choosing to 'sit tight'. Candidates and job hunters tend to be looking for a role which is 'better' than their existing role. They're not unaware of what's going on in the world and perhaps having escaped a round of redundancies or seen friends in vulnerable positions, they've decided the grass is not always greener. Also - the definition of 'better' - it's not always money - it can mean flexible hours, pension, bonus, culture, days in the office.
The irony is that whilst we are working with a much smaller pool of roles than we would typically be working on, many candidates who are technically 'keeping an eye out' are deciding to stay where they are. Even those who in a previous life were Job hoppers, they've sensed that time has run out and they need to prove themselves.
It's an interesting time to be in recruitment. With the media talking a lot about AI in terms of replacing jobs and playing a role in the recruitment process, the domino effect of world events impacting decision making and humans being...humans, we'll see how the post August/holiday numbers stack up and hopefully see a bit more momentum in the market.
Written by Fiona Christian. August 14th 2025.
If you want to chat, I'm on 07976 125963.